I’m from space!

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 10th, 2023

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  • First, there’s the pull-forward effect. December 2025 was Tesla’s best-ever retail month in China at 93,843 units, as buyers rushed to purchase before the reinstatement of a 5% purchase tax on NEVs starting January 1, 2026. That tax had been fully exempted for over a decade. Some of January’s weakness is borrowed December strength.

    Second, China’s vehicle trade-in subsidies expired in most cities in mid-November and remain in a transitional phase, dampening demand broadly.

    Third, the broader NEV market was weak. China’s total passenger NEV retail sales fell 20% year-over-year in January to 596,000 units, according to CPCA estimates. Even BYD saw its NEV sales drop 30% year-over-year and 50% month-over-month.

    But here’s the thing: even BYD’s weak month produced 210,051 units. Tesla’s 18,485 is a different universe.










  • I feel ya, but the Trump administration expects that the global, local, and market response will be gradual. As soon as they start seeing quick responsive volatility that impacts Trump or his cronies, they TACO.

    Given what’s happening with Venezuela, Greenland and the Fed Chair, I don’t know we’re not aggressively talking pulling out of US bonds and setting investment policy around that. That doesn’t have to be a gradual thing, it can happen swiftly.

    People naturally started backing out of US bonds when Trump’s crazy tariffs started rolling out, and the Trump admin totally wussed out on a lot of that stuff.

    Also, if the world is going to stop pegging their currencies to the dollar, they need to stop buying US bonds first. They need to diversify.








  • Strangely enough, I used to research this. I used to work for a grocery delivery company and we’re travel around to learn how people fed themselves in different parts of the worlds.

    For North America and Europe, the big difference was among people in major cities, vs rural or suburban areas. The grocery, transportation infrastructure, and housing stock are often very very different. And that changes how people eat.

    City shoppers = smaller, more frequent, shopping trips that cover the day or week.

    Outside of the city = more need / opportunities to “stock up” and buy in bulk.