geteilt von: https://feddit.org/post/8357814
The left side of the graph shows the results, the right side shows possible coalitions
Voting for conservatives makes planes fall out of the fucking sky
do they want planes falling out of the fucking sky because that’s how they get planes falling out of the fucking sky
The shit neo-Nazi filled AfD gained a lot of ground. WTF.
Right wing nazi parties are gaining traction all around Europe. Social media has given them a platform where they can make small problems look like big problems. Most of the people voting for them only look at 1 agenda item, which is immigration. Besides that they know jack shit about what these parties are about. If you look at the agenda items, it’s all tailored for the elite.
An extremely far right party in ireland got a lot of following on twitter, then in the election about 5 people voted for them. Guess Americans and Russian bots can’t vote.
Yeah that too.
We also got Russia and the US weaponizing social media to support far-right parties. The EU needs to get their shit together.
Promoting fediverse apps is the way 🙌🏻
Can someone please explain this for a non-German. I know there was a large concern with the AfD, but what do the results mean so far?
It’s not as bad as some polls suggested, but it’s pretty fucking bad.
There are few options for coalition-building that don’t involve the far-right AfD as the other parties have promised. Meanwhile the far-right and conservative right hold an absolute majority between them, giving them options to approve a lot of heinous shit as they’ve shown they are willing to do in line with their xenophobic rhetoric.
The upsides are that the Left successfully reinvented their profile and made major gains after being pronounced dead (for the 8th time), the Greens didn’t lose as much as the anti-woke anti-education narratives suggested, and the neoliberals are fully out after torpedoing their own government coalition.
Germany will probably get a centrist-right (CDU/CSU) government with a centrist-left junior partner (SPD).
Centrist-right is far left in US terms.I expect stagnancy in German politics for the next 4 years. -_-
As a foreigner in Germany, CDU is not centrist at all. Maybe you should consider how your definition of “center” changed in the last years. CDU is a right wing party, CSU even more, leaning into populist views, Afd is extremist.
I wish SPD was left. Most of its policies of the last years were pretty much the same as right wing parties.
CDU was always center-right and SPD center-left. In the last years SPD slowly drifted to center. Some still consider them center-left.
You should check on the definition of extremist. The AfD ist far-right, yes, but not extremist (yet).
Wir sollten eine SA gründen und aufräumen!“ – Andreas Geithe, AfD
We should form an SA and clean up!’ - Andreas Geithe, AfD
Immerhin haben wir jetzt so viele Ausländer im Land, dass sich ein Holocaust mal wieder lohnen würde.“ – Chatprotokoll Marcel Grauf
After all, we now have so many foreigners in the country that a Holocaust would be worthwhile again.’ - Chat protocol Marcel Grauf
Ich würde niemanden verurteilen, der ein bewohntes Asylantenheim anzündet. Ich würde mir so sehr einen Bürgerkrieg von Millionen Toten - Frauen, Kindern, mir egal - wünschen, Hauptsache es geht los. Insbesondere würde ich laut lachen, wenn so etwas auf der Gegendemo passieren würde. Tote, Verkrüppelte, es wäre so schön. Ich will auf Leichen pissen und auf Gräbern tanzen. Sieg Heil!“ (Marcel Grauf, AfD) Marcel Grauf ist Mitarbeiter der AfD-Abgeordneten Christina Baum und dem AfD-Politiker Heiner Merz.
I wouldn’t condemn anyone who sets fire to an inhabited asylum centre. I would so much like to see a civil war of millions of dead - women, children, I don’t care - the main thing is that it starts. I would especially laugh out loud if something like that happened at the counter-demonstration. Dead people, crippled people, it would be so nice. I want to piss on corpses and dance on graves. Sieg Heil!’ (Marcel Grauf, AfD)
Marcel Grauf is an employee of AfD MP Christina Baum and AfD politician Heiner Merz.
Abschiebung der Antifa nach Buchenwald“ – Mirko Welsch, AfD Mirko Welsch war der Bundessprecher der Homosexuellen in der AfD
Deportation of the Antifa to Buchenwald’ - Mirko Welsch, AfD Mirko Welsch was the federal spokesperson for homosexuals in the AfD
Es ist richtig, Menschen mit schwarzer Hautfarbe auch weiterhin N**** zu nennen.“ –Thomas Seitz, AfD
It is right to continue calling people with black skin colour N****.’ -Thomas Seitz, AfD
Nothing to see here folks. Defenitly NOT an extremist political party. Move along now!!!
It would be extremist if they do that instead of just telling what they would like to do. Trump tells us he wants to annex Canada and Greenland. Does that make him an extremist too?
Yes.
If Elon Musk is showing up at their events telling them not to be ashamed of their history, then they are absolutely extremist.
The CDU always has contained everything from centre-left to far-right, as long it’s compatible with democracy. Their right wing is about en par with Reagan, their left wing with, dunno, Harris, status quo liberals in general. They’re not about to abolish public healthcare, gutting unemployment benefits OTOH is up their alley. Social conservatism wise they tend to brake a lot, but aren’t prone to be regressive, like wanting to roll back gay rights or something. Or, differently put, they won’t be any more conservative the EKD which is absolutely fine with reverends having gay sex in the vicarage as long as it’s monogamous.
Socially they absolutely aim to turn back time. They’ve promised to revoke gender self-identification and marijuana legalization for instance, and they’re all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric. Regardless of how much they may struggle to come up with excuses to legitimize it, this is what resonates with the people they’re courting right now - voters that abandoned them for AfD or at least are considering it.
They’ve promised to revoke gender self-identification
…no. And their opposition to the law wasn’t transphobic (in the strict sense) in the first place but regarded abuse potential, which is why the law that got passed says that name changes are transmitted to police etc. so they can figure out whether someone’s trying to escape justice that way. Queer community of course didn’t like that but it did insulate the whole thing against attacks from the right.
and marijuana legalization for instance
They won’t. Also they’d fail before the constitutional court as outlawing it back then was not scrutinised by the same standards the constitutional court would apply now. Fixing it, OTOH, forget it.
and they’re all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric
Hell they aren’t because SMEs aren’t. Merz picked that up in a (stupid) attempt to get AfD votes. The CDU is captured by lobby interests and the lobby wants immigrant workers. Loudly. Vocally. The whole economy of the whole east is up in arms about lacking workers and the AfD scaring away those they could get. They’re going to bury the topic as quickly as they can. That Netanjahu invitation might actually be exactly that: That’s giving the Springer press opportunity to forget about the whole xenophobia thing and instead focus on purported anti-semitism on the left. Because, *checks notes*, executing international arrest warrants is antisemitic. Expect candlelight vigils with pictures of sniped children, I’m confident Die Linke knows how to play that one, this isn’t about preventing the visit at all costs but exposing bigotry on the right. Did I already mention that Merz sucks at strategy?
And their opposition to the law wasn’t transphobic (in the strict sense) in the first place but regarded abuse potential,
Or maybe they just hide their transphobia behind a thin veil of reasonable-sounding, legal arguments.
and marijuana legalization for instance
They won’t.
They will use that topic for diversion in a pinch. It’s mostly meaningless to them, but they’ll happily jump at the chance to play off unemployed stoners against the hard-working middle class.
Also they’d fail before the constitutional court as outlawing it back then was not scrutinised by the same standards the constitutional court would apply now.
That’s genuinely somehing for a judge to decide. And it’s usually years before unconstitutional laws are revoked.
[xenophoobic rhetoric] Merz picked that up in a (stupid) attempt to get AfD votes.
Merz is also, genuinely, a bigot. In all possible respects: toward women, toward foreigners, toward gender and sexual minorities, towards non-Christians, …
And there are also all manner of attempts to divide non-Germans within Germany, one of these is:
- Good: “we paid for this person to come here and take care of that elderly lady”.
- Bad: “this person is now caring for an elderly lady, but they’re worthless because they came as a refugee originally, they need to go”
Don’t forget that all the rhetoric of the past 3 months, from the right-wing parties in particular, but also from SPD, and even the Greens with their “deportations to Afghanistan and Syria, sure, but only to a rational degree” ideas have already spooked people living here. We’re also bound to see right-wing attacks rise further.
Merz and CxU are also not paragons of rationality. Everybody knew, and they must have known that they would only strengthen the Afd if they went all in on “bad foreigners” as the primary campaign topic. Really, 100% predictable. But they did. They used a terror attack to start the discussion and executed just as Merz had wanted to for 20 years, in fact. And they indeed lost 4.5% since the polls in November and the election last weekend, much of it to Afd. Primo job!
The CDU is captured by lobby interests and the lobby wants immigrant workers. Loudly. Vocally.
One of the interests of that lobby is actually undercutting pay those employees. That’s significantly easier when your employees don’t know about their rights, when they’re not working legally, etc.
You mentioned SMEs. SMEs are not that important to CxU, even less to Merz. But they look good as figureheads, so they get some breadcrumbs, and lots of mentions in speeches. And they’re told to grow.
So basically as if Democrats won? then why are people so upset?
I don’t think I understand
No, more like if (somehow) George Bush and Trump ran against each other and Bush won.
Its far from a great result but its not as bad as it could’ve been and, from a European standpoint, it means there’s strong opposition to Trump and strong support for Ukraine.
Because this kind of coalition was the definition of stale, boring politics in the past. No innovations, mainly slight adjustments here and there.
During the last time that coalition said something like “Das Internet ist für uns alle Neuland.” which means something along the line of “The internet is frontier land for all of us.” Within seconds #Neuland (frontier land) became the hash tag for a shitstorm that still lasts to this day - after 12 (!) years.
The internet was already established and well in use everywhere for ~20 years. And now the politicians suddenly recognized a new form of communication. If it wasn’t so funny I would have cried.That’s why everyone is disappointed. Can’t wait to hear what stupid shit this goverment will tell us. 🥱
CDU/CSU are basically what Republicans have been a couple years ago. They are very much far right, just not facist.
Without divine intervention we will get Friedrich Merz as chancellor, the guy who just one month ago was fine with working together with the Neo Nazi party Afd.
So even if a coalition between CDU and Afd isn’t happening, our chancellor is kinda Trump light. Mostly in it for himself and his industry buddies, no political experience and not used to doing compromises. And if somebody criticizes him, he cries like a little baby how unfair we are treating him for calling him a fucking fascist sympathizer.
So I expect a shitty time, but it looks like CDU and Afd can’t rule alone and the party that is responsible for the whole fiasco, the liberal FDP, got kicked out of the parliament, so at least that is a silver lining.
Aside from what the others have said, there is also a 2nd exit poll, with slightly different estimations. If reality will match this one, the BSW will get into parliament. They are a splinter party of the leftists, taking a most of the tankie nutcases with them.
They won’t be in government or important opposition, but if they make it, the 2 centrist parties alone don’t have enough seats. This means they need a 3rd party to form a government, and they have no good options. The preferred party would be FDP, but they are estimated to not make it. The greens would normally be up to it, but CDU/CSU campaign has mostly run on getting the greens out of government. And the Leftist, BSW and AFD are all too extreme for the very pensioner friendly CDU/CSU.
There is a chance we simply won’t have a stable government and will have to redo this election, but from most to least likely:
- Reality is closer to the first poll, boring centrist government, AFD can try again in 4 years
- The CDU will make some meaningless concessions to the greens and the greens will fall for it
- The CDU will completely destroy any trust and form a government with AFD
- There won’t be any stable government and a new election is called.
- Any Leftists in Government
- There won’t be a stable government, our president still elects a chancellor, we will have 4 weeks of a minority government and then someone triggers new elections.
Edit: Results are in, BSW missed getting into parliament by a very slim margin. CDU can form a stable Government with SPD.
Hope it’ll stay closer to ARD’s exit poll, with FDP and BSW both under 5%. Grand coalition is the best we can reasonably get. It’ll be way more stable than any 3-party coalition and I think we really need a stable government capable of getting shit done these next few years.
Problem is, that CDU, SPD will likely be the coalition, where the SPD has no Backbone while the CSU can do whatever the fuck they want (which is paving the way for AfD)
In my opinion, the AfD stands to gain far more from another ineffective, quarreling 3-party coalition than from a CDU government with a pushover SPD. That way, the greens will also have an opportunity to rebuild their strength in opposition for the next election. They won’t have that while governing with the CDU. Believe me, it’s far from my preferred coalition, but I think it would be the best with the hand we were dealt.
That may be true. I dont know what effect would be more important. We will never know.
Would it not be possible for a 3-party coalition to be perfectly stable? We’ve had many of those in the Netherlands that went just fine, I believe. Though I guess given the lack of a threshold, those parties might differ less than they do in Germany?
If German politicians behaved like adult human beings, and did, as they are supposed to, work for the good of the entire country, then, this would work. The problem is that they don’t, most of the time.
Possible maybe, but such a coalition would either involve the Greens, who are absolutely despised by parts of the Union to the point of Bavarian Minister-president Markus Söder declaring them their main enemy and ruling out any coalition, or the FDP, who sabotaged our previous government, caused its collapse and is thus hated by the SPD. The BSW is not a realistic coalition partner with its Pro-Russian stance. So any option for a 3-party coalition would likely result in a lot of conflict and chaos in my opinion. Chaos which the AfD can use to its benefit.
Right, that makes sense. So I suppose it’s indeed the threshold and parties have more differing opinions.
I kinda wondered about BSW though. They are left, they are anti-immigration and they are capable of pulling votes from AfD and Die Linke - the two parties that compete most with CDU/CSU and SPD, respectively.
So they could be quite a strategic partner.
They have repeatedly made it clear that for them to even consider a coalition, the other parties would have to agree to stop all support for Ukraine and make peace with Russia with a full normalisation of relations. Sarah Wagenknecht won’t budge on that, and that makes any coalition talks with them unfeasible for the other parties.
BSW completely depends on their (Co-) party chairwoman and name giver Sahra Wagenknecht who is simply unwilling to bear gouvernmental responsibility. And she is considered to be a russian mouthpiece.
Merz ruled out to form a coalition with BSW and I don’t see any sane person who would try to sway this decision.
Thanks guys for answering. As a Dutch person I don’t know all the details.
I guess it’s really good you guys have a 5% threshold. Here in the Netherlands, things are just too chaotic without it.
I mean, CDU/CSU and SPD have a majority with 45% of the votes, and 14% of the votes did not result in seats. That doesn’t sound like an improvement to me. (Compared to the Netherlands - still beter than FPTP systems.)
I disagree, it’s definitely an improvement to the infinite amount of parties we have.
BSW is basically the United Russia party of Germany. And they will not get any seats in parliament according to the current projections.
About what was expected.
Good news for Die Linke, bad news for the Greens, rest looks pretty similar to polling over the past week.
The Greens lost the least votes from all the members of the last coalition. SPD and FDP have huge losses.
Not necessarily so bad for the Greens. They are the only party of the current government that has not lost a massive amount of votes. They have more or less maintained their position, so not good, but not bad either.
The Greens did very well given the amount of shit thrown at them. SPD and FDP did worse
I’m talking about compared to the polling averages.
Even there I don’t see them doing particularly bad. Also the ARD Exit Polls differ a bit from the ones from ZDF
The Graphic shows all polls averaged of the last 90 days
Note, currently BSW and FDP are both below 5 percent which means they won’t get into the Bundestag which drastically changes the number of seats the other parties get. As long as they don’t go over 5 % a coalition between the Union and SPD is possible.
That’s the goal, isnt it? Otherwise it will become another turmoil coalition
I had some hope for a Union + Greens coalition but it doesn’t look like that will be possible.
Söder pretty much declared the Greens their main enemy. I don’t think there’ll be a coalition of CDU/CSU and Green in the Bundestag until CxU declares a new main enemy (why not AfD?).
Söder understands the difference between electoral rhetoric and Realpolitik and so do CSU voters. And theatrics. He can go “I’ll keep an eye on those breaknecks, make sure they don’t convince the CDU of anything stupid”, occasionally make noise, and keep it at that.
The “main enemy” thing is absolutely true, of course, just have a look over the border to BW. But that’s about state, not federal, politics, and as long as the CSU keeps ruling Bavaria they’re happy.
Depending on which statistician you are asking they also might have just enough to get in
I’m sorry my dear Europeans 🙈😥
It’s not that bad. There is a “firewall” around the AfD, so a coalition with the CDU isn’t possible.
Dude, that “firewall” was set ablaze weeks ago by the CDU…
/s ?
No worries ppl. It can only get worse!
Worst possible outcome right now: BSW gets just enough votes to make it into parliament.
This results in an unstable government, since CDU/CSU and the expected partner SPD don’t have enough seats, with no one willing to help form the government. New elections are called shortly after.
BSW can destroy parliament by simply existing (well, the voters who put us in this situation with so much AFD), and the only hope is that we throw out all their votes when they don’t reach 5%. I don’t think it’s likely, but it is possible.
EDIT: BSW didn’t make it, a boring stable, yet slightly right wing, government for us.
