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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • The amount of studying is dependent upon the percentage of the information a person retains per repetition. The average person requires 8-10 repetitions to remember 90% of the information for most subjects. Some only require 1-2 repetitions (rare). Some people require 30+ repetitions. These repetition amounts are not always uniform across different types of learning. So the same person can require 20 repetitions to learn a new word, but understand a math concept in a single pass.

    Why this matters:

    Well designed educational curriculum starts out with 8-12 repetitions built in. Then gradually shifts to less in-class repetitions with an expectation for the student to complete repetitions on their own (studying or homework) aka study skills.

    For people with a higher level repetition requirement, learning study skills early on in the process is required for success. They often get very early intervention to help them acquire these skills.

    For the average student, they are usually taught study skills in a gradual manner as the repetitions in class are reduced. This is part of the curriculum and “homework” design.

    For people with a lower number of repetitions, they often don’t learn any study skills at all until college/university level. This is when the student is expected to do all of the repetitions after less than a single pass of instruction in class. These students usually breeze by classwork with “no studying” at lower levels only struggle when they eventually need to learn how to study.



  • The difference between the systems can be summed up as:

    English: read more words than they can speak.

    Japanese: speak more words than they can write.

    A native english speaker might use less than 15,000 words in common conversation. That same speaker in written communication can use 30,000 words and comprehend over 100,000 when reading.

    In Japanese and other logographic languages, the verbal vocabulary is usually greater than the written one. A complete reversal of the pattern.




  • “Teacher numbers are falling”

    Teacher’s leave because of lack of pay and a bad working environments. Then schools decided to save money by not backfilling the position.

    “provisions and resources seem to be”

    cutting teacher resources = more money out of pocket for most teachers for their students. Another reason teacher numbers are falling.

    “widespread delinquent behaviour has been reported to be on the rise,”

    When parents lose hope and are struggling to survive what’s the point of pushing education? When a teacher loses parental support, student behavior is one of the first things to get bad.

    "and it seems like they’re refusing more and more to enforce the rules on such behaviour, but if you turn up with the wrong haircut or wearing trainers, all hell breaks loose. "

    Admin and teachers are at a loss on how to reverse the student behavior trend. Without widespread parental support their hands are tied. So they find often focus on “coming down hard” on negative external trends they can identify, the so-called “gang-related” activities.


  • Been decades since I quit a job. When I was first starting out I quit a job every year or so for pay raises etc. I ran through like 5 jobs in 6 years.

    Then I started to get somewhere professionally and layoffs became more normal. I have been laid off 3 times over the past 20 years.

    First time because my new boss was making a run for CEO and I knew all his dirty laundry. So I got laid off with a massive severance package that gave me most of a year vacation + benefits. The NDA that came with it was hilarious given that they were illegal in the location. The in-house lawyer was my lunch buddy for years and had a bit of fun with it.

    Second time a new CEO decided to do a massive reorganization to “improve efficiency.” The company started hemorrhaging money immediately and I was on the first wave of layoffs with most of the rest of my department. It didn’t help that a year before in an all company meeting my boss decided to call me out for my lack of enthusiasm in front of everyone. Since he pressed after I suggested it was not a good idea to ask and he would regret it, I told him the strategic error of the major decision he had just announced in a short concise argument. He was not amused, but he couldn’t do anything then because he had pressed me for my opinion. Needless to say, I was on the short list for layoffs after the company got totally fucked over by his decisions.

    The last one was a panic when a massive recession hit their industry (totally predictable). They laid me off and essentially handed me my own fully established business. 2 weeks later my company was legal and I had a sit down meeting with them to discuss their “inventory issue”. Aka I cut a deal burn through their inventory so they wouldn’t firesale it and dump it on my customers. They essentially paid for my startup costs then bailed when I was just starting to make money. I still have a bit of a soft spot for them and their extremely well-timed stupidity.



  • Determining causation is often stymied by little things like ethics. This is where correlation becomes the “best guess” to avoid ethical quagmires.

    For example much of our medical science often starts out based upon correlation studies. Eventually indirect evidence can be used to confirm partial causation.



  • My wife and I are looking at retiring to Mexico. My wife has dual citizenship. It looks like I can get permanent residency relatively easily through a couple of options.

    The healthcare is steadily improving and still within a quick flight to the U.S. if needed for a specialist. It’s also a lot cheaper than the U.S.

    The food, it’s Mexico. It’s amazing.



  • The mechanisms by which civilizations grow, stagnate, collapse and recover have fascinated people since at least the ancient Greek philosophers.

    Civilizations initially grow because they make life better for the average citizen. Cooperation leads to more reliable food and more babies survive to make more babies.

    After some time some stressors on the civilization lead to widespread conflict. Historically this have been linked mostly to famine and plagues. Economic instability can also lead to a civilizations segmentation and conflict. The “fall of civilizations” is historically the segmentation of large civilizations into smaller entities as people rally around a local leader who promises them the “right” things.

    So what’s happening right now - a shit ton of stressors.

    Birth rates are negative in most industrialized nations. This indicates that on a widespread basis, globally people do not feel that they have the resources to raise kids.

    Climate change is triggering serious fears of famine. This is why denying the obvious heat increases is so popular. “Oh no, it’s not the hottest and dryest summer on record. Our crops are hunky doey.”

    Plagues - Well COVID happened and triggered a lot of widespread fear. That disease is still seen as a curse from the supernatural for most humans instead of a biological inevitability was made crystal clear.

    Wars - stealing someone else’s resources looks pretty good when you fear there is not enough resources to go around. “It’s too hot in the U.S. to grow crops, let’s invade Canada and steal Greenland!”

    So humans are doing what they have always done when stressed. Look for someone who looks like a “strong leader” who can make things right in their world again.


  • I am self-employed running my own business. Honestly other than about 4 weeks of harder work, I am basically on my own doing whatever I feel like.

    When I retire, well I have an idea for another business. I would need to relocate someplace tropical and hire 2 or 3 people to work for me. I doubt it would ever make much money, but it would be fun.


  • Education and work experience are the first things that prosecutors look at to remove people. Our judicial system is based upon the ability of the lawyers get the jurors to agree to their argument, not to evaluate fact or fiction. The more educated or experienced a person is, the more work it takes to win the argument.

    For example I got the impression that the prosecutors main evidence was DNA. Proving that it is or is not someone’s DNA can get very complicated quickly. The average person has no idea about these complications. So an “expert” testimony that omits addressing these complications is perfectly.



  • I have been called up to jury duty in a few states now and once in federal court. Probably 10 times in total.

    When I was traveling all the time, I was usually out of the country on the weeks when they wanted me for a trial. I deferred an few times and eventually was excused without showing up.

    The couple of times I was called into the jury selection:

    Once I was excused because the trial was supposed to last 3 weeks and I was traveling the next week.

    Another time I was excused when the prosecutor asked me about my work and education experience. He puckered up real hard when I mentioned I had worked in statistics and genetics and requested I be excused. It was pretty comical to be honest. Apparently

    The federal court was a bit different. The court was a 6 hour drive away. My kids were young at the time and I was permanently excused on the questionnaire because I had minors to take care of. The questionnaire was pretty intense too.

    My wife finally got her first summons this past week.


  • Many places where I have worked have old Access databases running critical business activities or even worse a monster of an excel spreadsheet. The there is ERP integrations and reporting that links into excel etc. The list goes on for just how integrated MS office has become over the past 25 years.

    Business have adopted macOS quite extensively today because MS office is supported. Adding in native support in Linux would allow for a more gradual tradition.